Forecasting foreign exchange market using technical analysis

Source Forex | Useful


Analyzing the situation on the forex and making predictions about the future of his movement, traders are primarily a method of forecasting: fundamental or technical analysis.

Технический анализ

The principal difference between these methods is that fundamental analysis examines the economic and political factors that influence the price change, and prefer technical analysis to study the dynamics of the price itself, since it was originally founded on the reaction of speculators or that news.

Medium-and long-term investors may be interested in fundamentals, while the intraday traders and short-term investors often have turned to technical analysis.

Using technical analysis, every currency trader chooses the most convenient form of graphs. Bar chart looks like a vertical line connecting the maximum and minimum specified trading period. A small horizontal stroke on the left represent the opening price and the right touch - the closing price. Players who feel that as much information as you can get, given the closing price, use a line graph. The increasing popularity of Forex for their brightness and informative takes on schedule "candlestick." The body of the candle is drawn according to the opening and closing, and the price highs and lows form the shadows. If the closing price fell below than they were at the opening, then a candle is painted black, and if the closing occurred above - is white.
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Who are they - the opponents and supporters of scalping?

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Scalping (or Scalping) - probably one of the most contentious and controversial topics in forex. There will always be those who are foaming at the mouth will protect the futility of short-term transactions, as well as those for whom the scalping - the meaning of life and basic income.

Скальпинг
What is scalping? This style of trading, in which a single transaction takes only a few points of the movement of currency pairs. Often, this can even be a point. Opponents of such trade contemptuously call it pipsing.
So who are they - the opponents and supporters of scalping?
A. "But Baba Yaga against it!"
Sadly, on the forums you can often find people who will make fun of any trading system, any style, any indicator . And if the author, who started a theme, time does not understand, with whom he dealt, the branch will become a forum to debate an empty douche gryayu each other. The opinion of the opponents we are not interested.
Two. "Growing Pains"
I wonder if there is at least one trader, who has not tried pipsovat? Let's see what happens with the ordinary trader, novice when it comes to the real. Everyone knows that in the demo account new traders can easily increase their deposit , and in a hurry to move to Real, it is desirable (for them) with a large sum of money. It's so simple - to make a million! In addition, teachers in a course only talking about this. And here is the uncle today for the third time won, he said, and his eyes shine out like! And in real life turns out to be scary! And what is in the mind of our "green" a trader at the time of trade, when the deal is open? "Oh, I had 5 points! Maybe it close? Oh, reduced! A-A A-minus! Well, where are you! Oh, it seems getting better! No, I will close to zero, I can not! Phew, plus one! No, that's enough! "And when the same minus 5 points, to close the mind is not there! And here are new, having swallowed a sedative, the system begins to search for scalping. Or does not start, as well as "trades", plus a small and a big minus. The result is known. But one gets used to be a trader in the transaction. This is not so bad, he adheres to his system, and lo and behold, earning points 60, and he was not sitting all that time at the computer, and may asleep. Or walking with your child. Now he just will not catch the whole day to 5 a fad, and wait a good signal on the hour (or four-hour timeframe) and get a decent profit. Such traders are also against scalping, but they have a reasonable argument: they know that on a larger time frame to trade safer and more profitable, and they want to novices did not commit their mistakes. But it is probably impossible. In this case, scalping - a disease of growth transition period.
Three. "Well, so I am!"
Are there any supporters among the scalping traders held. Yes there is! The most interesting is that they are working quietly for a moment, and even ticks. Methodical, measured, no adrenaline. They are also accustomed to the market, he gives them a storm of emotions. Conversely, a trader in something like a robot - a signal system that opened the transaction, the signal - closed. Stop paragraph 2-3, is taken as quietly. Yes, they have their own trading system , perfected to automatism, it does not shake the beginner. They are not tired of this work, it's just a job, both on the factory assembly line. They can not sit for hours and wait for the signal at the input, and then another and to the output. Well they are!
But what unites opponents and supporters of scalping? Having a clear trading system and strict adherence to it. You can pipsovat or trade medium, but you need to know exactly when and what to do, where to go, where to go. And all this must be solved in advance! Then you could do it!

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Gap. As a way to increase the deposit

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Before you begin to trade on the Forex market, every newbie has read a lot of literature.

Гэп Fortunately the internet with this all in order. By studying the material, it is clear that for successful trading we just have to correctly identify the trend and open up a warrant in the same direction. But how to determine this direction?
It is known that the trend lasts only about 30% of the time, and the rest flat.

Here come into play technical factors. And traders, recalling the material covered, begin to look for on the charts reversal or continuation pattern (head and shoulders, double bottoms, triple bottom, pennants, flags, etc.). To the disappointment of many can say that all of these classical pieces (patterns) has long been considered by the organizers of this great game. At the moment, opened many new patterns, the best of them - a thorn.
But back to the classics. What really remains in working condition at the moment?
How many traders know that the founders of the candlestick is very zealously track gaps? A department with a large staff of analysts to identify those situations in the market. Why is this happening?

First you need to remind the gap is a gap in the quotations. It is obtained at a very rapid change in prices. Intuitively, the graph of one time period is formed between the hole opening and closing prices. What does this mean?
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How to determine support and resistance levels?

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Each trader forex trading before trying to determine for themselves where to place the pivot (point spread), 1,2,3 - and support and resistance levels. After all, knowing it is much easier to make a trading plan and, accordingly, to take profit.

Уровни сопротивления и поддержки
For this purpose, developed many different techniques. For example, you stupidly wait for news feeds from Dow Jones with the levels of resistance and support from a leading analyst Axel Rudolph, the way these data are considered the most accurate. Or enter the site brokerage firm, such as Alpari, which also presents data on the estimated levels. You can just try to calculate their own well-known formulas: P = max + min + C c / 3, where P is the pivot, max-the maximum price for a certain period of time, min-the minimum price for the same period, C s - the price closure. R1 = 2 * P-min, where R1-first level of resistance. S1 = 2 * P-max, where S1-first support level. R2 = P + (R1-S1),
S2 = P-(R1-S1), R3 = max +2 (P-min), S3 = min-2 (max-P).
In this situation looks absolutely natural desire to simplify the trader's their job, ie find an indicator that he will calculate all the necessary support and resistance levels. But the trouble is that wherever you are and what levels they have not received all differ from each other. How can that be?
Out of this situation is definitely there, and pretty simple. The best indicator that will never disappoint, and most importantly, not late - it is the price. In the quotations have already been laid and the state of the economy at the moment, and living standards, etc. Can this be applied to real trading?
If you look at the history of any country and to shift the data in the chart quotes, you'll be sure exactly how all events are displayed. Everything that is happening like the water cycle. All repeats. So you can just visually determine for themselves the all important price levels and a fairly good idea to put them into practice.
The concept is simple! Knowing this, you can begin to build support and resistance levels. To do this, open the schedule for any instrument you have chosen, for example, EURUSD. Take the largest timeframe, such as Monthly, and finding the point on which was the biggest bounce either up or down, holding the line. Then the same should be done by changing the schedule timeframe for Weekly, and then the Daily and H4. Levels obtained in consequence will be very well practiced, but we must remember, the higher the timeframe, the more significant level.
There is a great way to get a perfectly working support and resistance levels. This use of Fleta. Similarly, what has been said above, have been manipulated to the schedule, only one difference, instead of looking flat powerful rebounds. After determining the limit of his Fleta on both sides of the lines. With this method, determination of the levels need to remember the longer and has been flat, the more you will be received levels.
If you want to check the correctness of the above, there is nothing easier. Switch on the H1 timeframe, and scroll through the schedule on the history and see for yourself. All repeats.
To simplify the work of traders using the above mentioned techniques, developed a unique LED Key-level. The difference of this indicator, it incorporated a few tricks. On the basis of historical quotations, he calculates the levels, and he assigns them to the degree of significance. Suppose visually identify all the levels of H4 is very problematic, as an indicator of this is quite deftly handles. Due to the mortgaged Key-level algorithm can relieve the competition schedule of excess, there is little significant levels. This indicator is perfectly configured for any type of trading strategy (from scalping to the investment). It suffices to specify in the settings area of ​​competition that suits you, and all else will do it myself. For example, for scalping to put in the values ​​of "competition area" - 20 points and you get a lot of levels with varying degrees of importance, which are most suited for this tactic. Or specify 100 points, levels will be lower, but again they are well practiced, although it is more suitable for intraday.
The only drawback of this indicator is that it is charged
(Around $ 100). But try it benefits you can still, however, only on the currency pair USDJPY. Because of the low volatility, the developers are using this particular tool as a demonstration.
The choice is yours. While money and small, but it's money. On the other hand, developers of this amount in addition offer a modified indicator to determine the levels of Demark, with detailed instructions on how to use a couple of these indicators to get a steady profit.
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